German Industrial Output Falls after 8 years of steady growth

Carolynn Look  (Bloomberg)

• Output dropped 3% in December vs estimated 0.3% increase
• Economy Ministry says orders indicate revival in coming months

German industrial production unexpectedly fell in December, signaling that Europe’s largest economy isn’t immune to heightened global uncertainty.

Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, declined 3 percent from November, when it advanced a revised 0.5 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said on Tuesday. The volatile indicator’s worst reading since early 2009 compares with a median estimate for a 0.3 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey. Production was down 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

German business confidence slipped in January and momentum in manufacturing and services slowed as national elections in September and risks related to Brexit and protectionist trade policies in the U.S. weigh on the outlook. Companies assessment of current economic conditions remains favorable, with factory orders surging and unemployment dropping to a record low.
A rise in order intake in the industrial and construction sectors as well as an increase in sentiment indicators in these areas “signal a revival of production growth in coming months,” the Economy Ministry said in an e-mailed statement.

Output was damped by a 3.4 percent decline in manufacturing, according to the data. Construction fell 1.7 percent in December from the previous month, while energy production declined 0.9 percent.
Today’s data come on the back of a Monday report showing factory orders bounced the most since 2014 in December. The surge was driven by demand for investment goods and saw both domestic and export orders increasing.

Bitcoin price ready for the big move...

Bitcoin is on the news again and this time it is not due to its price rally or dive but due to the inauguration of the 45th president of the united states: Donald J. Trump.
Bitcoin had a fall back some weeks ago due to China currency control and lost a fifth of its price but has not been able to get below the support mark of $860. It has been howering around that value upto $880. This has been on for some days now and it seems it is rallying for a big jump. Don’t believe it, let me tell you why.
China currency controls had been tweeted overly by the soon to be President of the United States: Donald J. Trump.  Donald Trump sees China as a country ripping others off by currency controls and they just recently caused the price of bitcoin to lose a fifth of its value by publishing a statement to its people that bitcoin has no value backing it and therefore no currency for exchange of value, this was after holding a meeting with the biggest bitcoin exchanges in China inorder to consolidate the use and value of its Yuan. The President elect of the US has been talking …no tweeting about China Currency controls…and they know immediately he steps into power he would be watching them like a hawk for any such changes.
Investors have also been on the lookout for changes in the dollars immediately the inauguration takes place as events within the inauguration would decide which way the dollars slides against other fiat currencies especially the euro and the yuan.

US-China trade war coming

The battle for manufacturing supremacy is about to begin as the US and China go head to head as each looks to fuel demand and inject more growth into their respective economies. Will the US currency be the next one to devalue because unlike before China is ready for them now.

Bitcoin is at the right place and at the right time and a safe haven for investors. Its value would most likely climb to be $2000 and with over 30+ banks in negative interest rates, things could only get worse for fiat currencies. 

Online Scam detection - How to know it is fake

I would be teaching and helping readers right now as there is a great need for education on online scam detection. We have so many scams online today and it baffles me that people keep falling for these scams daily and keep losing their hard earned money. We will do a review of some of the things you look out for in an online investment. We won’t be displaying the names of the scam sites but we would be telling you factors to use and identify a scam investment online.

First of all, all investments require a level of trust.
This trust would be gotten from assessing the investment based on several factors.
There are many other factors we can consider but we would be going through some very critical factors that must be in place before you commit.

This can serve as a guideline for online scam detection but you need to add more as you become more adept: let’s just say this is the minimum requirement from any online investment you want to invest in.

Online scam detection guidelines

The online investment must be regulated - EU, US or Country Regulated - and there should be documentation to support this. Such regulations website should be online and you can check them up if you think the document is false.

The online investment should be trading or investing in a physical asset e.g Oil and gas, Forex, Commodities etc…some would argue this as bitcoin is not a physical asset. Bitcoin is an exception.

The online investment opportunity should not be a HYIP- High Investment Yield Program - you invest $100 and get 150% in 5 days…that is totally unrealistic and you know its crazy to achieve but you invest because you are greedy. Such high returns don’t happen overnight and you should stop being greedy.

The online investment should have a track record. This I cannot overemphasize. If they claim they have been investing since 2014. Then we should see the daily trading details from then on and there should be investors that have been with then since then. You can find this out in results.

The online investment should have a social media page for investors and you can assess them to see user comments and complaints and how it is being resolved.  
 Such investment should have a good support line for people investing to enable them resolve issue within minutes of reporting.

Scam sites are on the increase today especially with the rise in price of bitcoin and so many are receiving bitcoin for their "supposedly investment" so the need to educate readers on online scam detection. if you get scammed you can submit your comment here inorder to help others from being scammed...and yes! i have been scammed before, you are not the first nor would be the last. Lick up wound and start all over again. 

Commodities rally may charge into 2017

These four commodities rallied in the last quarter of 2016 into 2017. As shown in the graph above:
C01 Comdity is ICE Brent Crude Oil. This represents the price index of brent crude oil.
XAU Curncy is the price increase for one troy ounce of gold.
LMCADS03 Comdty is London Metal Exchange LME Copper 3 Month Rolling Forward.
T101 Comdty is the Iron ore traded as a commodity. 

These are the major commodities traded on the exchange floor and these all had a boost at year end 2016.

One of the greatest influence on commodity price for 2016 was the increase in the price of crude oil.The price of crude oil was said to have increased from $38 per barrel to $52 per barrel and with it went the prices of some of these commodities.

Brent
Brent crude UK:LCOG7 went up around 46% year to date as of December,2016 had done a bit better than West Texas Intermediate crude‘s US:CLF7  nearly 38% climb so far in 2016.
Gold
Gold GCG7, +0.09%  looks set for yearly gain of nearly 8%, recouping most of 2015, 10.5% drop, while silver’s SIH7, +1.00%  up over 22%, following a loss of almost 12% in 2015.
Iron Ore led commodity gains in 2016; oil, gold also bounce back
Iron ore
While many commodities rebounded from last year’s steep declines, iron ore made the largest move by far—making a full U-turn in 2016 from the previous year’s devastating losses.
“When you look at what iron ore did in 2015—a considerable downtrend—it had nowhere to go but up this year, and it did,” said Joseph Innace, metals content director at S&P Global Platts.
“The trend has been up all year, reaching a recent peak of $82.30 [per dry metric ton] on December 7, 2016,” he told MarketWatch on Dec. 8—a surge of 92.7% year to date, based on S&P Global Platts IODEX daily price data.
“As Chinese steelmaking goes, so goes iron ore,” said Innace. The annualized 2016 rate of steel production from China is at nearly 810 million metric tons, while most predictions saw it coming in under 800 million metric tons, he said.
Copper
Copper was also among the worst performers in 2015, but last year came up in among the largest gainers.
Expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to improve the nation’s infrastructure will boost industrial commodity demand helped provide an extra late-year lift.
Copper futures HGH7, +2.93%  settled at $2.605 a pound on Comex Wednesday. It trades over 20% higher year to date.

Oil and Natural Gas
Oil and natural-gas futures bounced back after two years in a row of steep losses.
Yearly gains of nearly 45% for Brent UK:LCOG7  and almost 38% for West Texas Intermediate crude US:CLF7 were impressive, but not as impressive as the more than 52% jump seen for natural-gas futures.

“Supply and demand is slowly rebalancing and we should start seeing inventories start declining in 2017 with demand exceeding supply,” Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, told MarketWatch.

During the year, 2016. The energy market saw a continued decline in investment, which translated into falling production in the U.S. and elsewhere, he said. “Demand growth is solid and better than expected, led by India and the developing world.”

And the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ recent agreement to cut back output “has helped push prices up with expectations that the rebalancing will occur a bit earlier in 2017 than otherwise thought,” said Youngberg.

Many oil producers outside of OPEC also agreed this month to reduce output by 558,000 barrels a day and OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia, said that it may even cut more than promised.
These commodities are good commodities to watch out for and trade on this newyear. They did well last year and will do even better this year.

Bitcoin price plunges by a fifth

Bitcoin price has been on the rise for some time now and most including myself, thought this ride would continue for a long time. The ride took the high ride of a roller coaster from January 1st this year and had an all time high for the second time in its history on the 4th of January, 2017 going for $1149 to a bitcoin then falling within two day by $250 which is about 5% of its previous day price.

This rise would have continue for reasons I had stated in my previous post but it took a dive just today due to a meeting this week between  the People's Bank of China (PBOC) with representatives of its major bitcoin exchanges in China to urge their compliance with "relevant laws and regulations". BTC China, OKCoin and Huobi  - all exchanges in China - accounts for the bulk of the world's bitcoin volumes, according to data from Bitcoinity.

An informal translation of the document reads:
"Bitcoin is not a currency and shouldn't be viewed as such. Those who invest in bitcoin should accordingly be aware of the risks it poses and protect their investment."
The public statements aimed to serve as a reminder to citizens who may be considering the digital currency as an investment, and both quoted a government circular released in 2013 saying that bitcoin is a virtual good and doesn’t have legal tender status.
Pete Rizzo (2017): http://www.coindesk.com/ China's Central Bank Issues Warnings to Major Bitcoin Exchanges.

China is not new to the world of currency controls especially if it has to do with its people and its currency. They have been known to devalue its currency time and again to keep its currency cheap and enable its manufacturers, manufacture cheap but sell high to foreign countries. This was important to increase their GDP and move them to a world power position but now that they are seeking the world’s acceptance of its Yuan as a rival to the dollars. They wouldn’t want her people to use more of another currency causing its value to decline in use and value. 

This again shows the vulnerability of Bitcoin as a currency. As it has been accepted around the world, the numbers game would come to play. The country with the highest volumes can control the price for the rest of the world due to its currency policies like China has shown. Bitcoin may not be controlled by the Government of China but they can influence its price by the control on their people and currency causing the laws of demand and supply to kick in and cause bitcoin's price to either go up or down, causing the rest of the world to simply accept the new price. So brace up, we would most likely see some more of this in this new year.