Tuesday 10 January 2017

Commodities rally may charge into 2017

Commodities rally may charge into 2017
These four commodities rallied in the last quarter of 2016 into 2017. As shown in the graph above:
C01 Comdity is ICE Brent Crude Oil. This represents the price index of brent crude oil.
XAU Curncy is the price increase for one troy ounce of gold.
LMCADS03 Comdty is London Metal Exchange LME Copper 3 Month Rolling Forward.
T101 Comdty is the Iron ore traded as a commodity. 

These are the major commodities traded on the exchange floor and these all had a boost at year end 2016.

One of the greatest influence on commodity price for 2016 was the increase in the price of crude oil.The price of crude oil was said to have increased from $38 per barrel to $52 per barrel and with it went the prices of some of these commodities.


Crude graph

Brent
Brent crude UK:LCOG7 went up around 46% year to date as of December,2016 had done a bit better than West Texas Intermediate crude‘s US:CLF7  nearly 38% climb so far in 2016.
Gold
Gold GCG7, +0.09%  looks set for yearly gain of nearly 8%, recouping most of 2015, 10.5% drop, while silver’s SIH7, +1.00%  up over 22%, following a loss of almost 12% in 2015.
Iron Ore led commodity gains in 2016; oil, gold also bounce back
Iron ore
While many commodities rebounded from last year’s steep declines, iron ore made the largest move by far—making a full U-turn in 2016 from the previous year’s devastating losses.
“When you look at what iron ore did in 2015—a considerable downtrend—it had nowhere to go but up this year, and it did,” said Joseph Innace, metals content director at S&P Global Platts.
“The trend has been up all year, reaching a recent peak of $82.30 [per dry metric ton] on December 7, 2016,” he told MarketWatch on Dec. 8—a surge of 92.7% year to date, based on S&P Global Platts IODEX daily price data.
“As Chinese steelmaking goes, so goes iron ore,” said Innace. The annualized 2016 rate of steel production from China is at nearly 810 million metric tons, while most predictions saw it coming in under 800 million metric tons, he said.
Copper
Copper was also among the worst performers in 2015, but last year came up in among the largest gainers.
Expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to improve the nation’s infrastructure will boost industrial commodity demand helped provide an extra late-year lift.
Copper futures HGH7, +2.93%  settled at $2.605 a pound on Comex Wednesday. It trades over 20% higher year to date.
Oil and Natural gas

Oil and Natural Gas
Oil and natural-gas futures bounced back after two years in a row of steep losses.
Yearly gains of nearly 45% for Brent UK:LCOG7  and almost 38% for West Texas Intermediate crude US:CLF7 were impressive, but not as impressive as the more than 52% jump seen for natural-gas futures.

“Supply and demand is slowly rebalancing and we should start seeing inventories start declining in 2017 with demand exceeding supply,” Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, told MarketWatch.

During the year, 2016. The energy market saw a continued decline in investment, which translated into falling production in the U.S. and elsewhere, he said. “Demand growth is solid and better than expected, led by India and the developing world.”

And the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ recent agreement to cut back output “has helped push prices up with expectations that the rebalancing will occur a bit earlier in 2017 than otherwise thought,” said Youngberg.

Many oil producers outside of OPEC also agreed this month to reduce output by 558,000 barrels a day and OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia, said that it may even cut more than promised.
These commodities are good commodities to watch out for and trade on this newyear. They did well last year and will do even better this year.

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